NBA betting market report: Daily picks, tips for Saturday 11/12 – VSiN Exclusive News – News

Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For daily updates follow me on Twitter, and be sure to subscribe Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Saturday November 12th

* Indicates the team is in the second leg of a back-to-back

** The line that opens the number

best bet

notes: 15-18 | Unit: -3.31 | ROI: -10.66%

Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Clippers (-2, 212.5)

Paul George is averaging 30.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game over the last six contests, and Los Angeles is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in their last six games as a result. They’ve also allowed just 105.0 points per 100 possessions during this run, and they come into this game as the second-best defensive team in the league at 108.4 points per 100 possessions allowed. That defense has to deal with Kevin Durant, who has averaged 27.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.3 assists during the Nets’ 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS run. During this closing streak, the Nets have quietly played a quality brand of defense, allowing only 95.0 points per 100 possessions. That line Clippers -1.5 is low enough to warrant a play for me given how well they are playing on defense.

Playing: Clippers (-1.5)

The remaining

Best bet Recap

Clippers (-1.5)

The remaining

Utah Jazz (-3.5, 222) at Washington Wizards

Utah is 6-1 SU / 7-0 ATS in its last seven games with a net rating of +9.7. As we’ve come to expect with this team, their rebounding has been good during this run, but this hasn’t been a matchup for them either. Washington is the second best defensive rebounding team in the league (74.9%), and they have allowed the second fewest plays per 100 missed shot attempts in the league (15.7). Bradley Beal is still out and Taj Gibson is doubtful to play, but the market has moved towards the home team by half a point. The consequent move has come in the Under, as this total fell 1.5 points to 221 consensus.

* Boston Celtics (-9, 223.5) at * Detroit Pistons

Boston’s win over Denver last night was their fifth straight, and the team is 3-1 ATS in their last four games. The Celtics defense is still showing inconsistencies – they allowed 1,225 points per possession last night – but this offense is still among the best in the league and shows no signs of slowing down. Boston has surpassed 1.3 points per possession in three of its last four games, one of which was a win over Detroit on Wednesday. The Pistons’ defense has allowed 119.5 points per 100 possessions this season, and it’s unlikely they’ll have the ability to contain the Celtics’ offense. It is possible that the betting market is moving in Boston’s direction, as 9.5 is the consensus number as of this morning and the total is up to 227. Monitor the injury report for both teams today, as both Cade Cunningham and Malcolm Brogdon are questionable. the best

* Toronto Raptors (-2.5, 228.5) at Indiana Pacers

Toronto looked like a team that was missing its top two forwards on Friday night. The Raptors managed only 1,061 points per possession on offense, and their defense was pounded on the glass by the Thunder who caught 47.2% of their missed shot attempts in non-garbage time. It would make sense for the market to adjust its ratings on a beating Toronto squad, but this is a swing. The Raptors closed -5 on the road against the Thunder yesterday, but now 1.5-point underdogs to a team rated similar to the Thunder? Indiana has covered six straight, but this seems like an overreaction to Toronto’s performance last night.

Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers (-3.5, 220.5)

The angle of the song here is total. When these two teams met on Thursday night there were 106 possessions in the game, but both teams averaged under one point per possession and the game went well in total. Today, we saw this number open up at 220 which is two points lower than the closing number on Thursday, and the betting market reacted accordingly in betting until the current number is 223.5 consensus. There hasn’t been any real movement on the sidelines, but Philadelphia isn’t coming off a 1-3 SU and minor ATS slump.

Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat (-10, 215)

Charlotte snapped an 0-6 ATS slide with a cover in overtime against Miami, but the offense hardly looked any better in the process. The Hornets averaged only 1,057 points per possession in the game, and tonight they are still without LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. To make matters worse, Dennis Smith Jr. injured his ankle in that game and is questionable to play tonight. Miami has its own injuries to deal with as well. Both Dewayne Dedmon and Tyler Herro are also questionable, leaving this game with a lot of noise and big numbers. Miami has been greatly overvalued by the betting market to start the season and Thursday’s failed shutout dropped them to 2-9-1 ATS on the season.

Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans (-10, 230.5)

Luster has definitely worn out for New Orleans, but the betting market has not caught up yet. The Pelicans’ loss on Thursday drops them to 1-5 ATS in November and 5-7 ATS on the season. In six games this month kept New Orleans an average of 4.75 points and here they are laying 10.5 today after winning the bet up from the opening numbers. Houston has not been a cover machine and their inability to rebound defensively (69.7%, 24th) does not lend itself to a competitive game tonight against a team that can attack the offensive glass like the Pelicans.

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